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📰 FED SEEN AS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO CUT THIS YEAR Markets are mostly pricing one interest rate cut, or none at all, this year in the U.S. after January CPI moved further away from the Fed’s 2% target, at 3%. Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth thinks a cut this year looks increasingly unlikely. “With tariffs likely to keep core PCE inflation close to, or above, 3% this year now, the Fed will stand pat for at least the next 12 months,” he writes. Treasury yields jumped on the inflation data and are holding on to their gains, with the 10-year at 4.651%, on path for its highest close since mid-January.

February 12, 2025
Frank

FED SEEN AS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO CUT THIS YEAR

Markets are mostly pricing one interest rate cut, or none at all, this year in the U.S. after January CPI moved further away from the Fed’s 2% target, at 3%. Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth thinks a cut this year looks increasingly unlikely. “With tariffs likely to keep core PCE inflation close to, or above, 3% this year now, the Fed will stand pat for at least the next 12 months,” he writes. Treasury yields jumped on the inflation data and are holding on to their gains, with the 10-year at 4.651%, on path for its highest close since mid-January.