The leading UK film and TV training body has questioned whether some of the projects benefitting from the new indie movie tax credit will ever make it to the big screen.
ScreenSkills unveiled a report this morning analyzing the short-term past and predicting the future of the local film and TV industry, which found that UK film and TV projects tumbled by 13% over the past three years and look set to plateau over the next two.
Between 2022 and 2025, film production fell by 8% and while this period saw the introduction of the gameching indie film rebate, ScreenSkills questioned its broader impact.
“The Independent Film Tax Credit (IFTC) has provided a modest gain to the landscape with a
significant increase in scripted film announced in the UK,” reads today’s Sizing up the Future report. “However, it remains to be seen whether these additional titles will enter production and contribute to UK production activity.”
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Pointing to a “significant increase” in announcements while questioning whether cameras will roll flags the difficulty of getting independent projects into production. After years of lobbying, the 40% tax relief on movies of up to £15M ($20M) budget was hailed by the likes of Christopher Nolan, Ridley Scott and Barbara Broccoli when it was finally introduced in the spring of 2024. There has since been little data on how many films have benefitted, with high-profile examples including Enid Blyton remake The Magic Faraway Tree and Prince Naseem biopic Giant, the latter of which relocated from Malta to Britain to take advantage of the credit.
Overall, ScreenSkills said film productions declined 8% over the past three years in the UK while TV tumbled by the far bigger 25%, with “sharp pullbacks” from the streamers since the boom year of 2022 and BBC commissioning down 13%. ScreenSkills did highlight success stories like Channel 4 expanding its scripted slate by 42% and entertainment programing growing 11% across major terrestrial broadcasters.
Going forwards, ScreenSkills projected various scenarios for where the industry is headed, with an upper scenario seeing content volume grow by 12% between now and 2028 — driven by “a favorable BBC charter, surging US inward investment and growth in independent film production benefitting from the IFTC tax credit.” A baseline scenario forecasted an increase of a much smaller 1.6% and a lower scenario projected a decline of 5.5% owing to “cost inflation and limited growth.”
ScreenSkills is a training body that represents the interests of industry workers and freelancers and the report painted a mixed picture of the overall landscape. There are around 260,000 to 330,000 potential workers in the industry at present but only just over half are in work, according to ScreenSkills, a figure that has declined since 2022. “The falling utilisation rate means that available talent is under-employed, or working significantly reduced hours compared to peak industry activity,” it added.
Earlier this year, ScreenSkills’ previous report analyzed artificial intelligence in the industry and found that some UK film and TV industry organizations were imposing “strict internal controls” around AI.
Today’s report predicted that the impact of AI may affect up to 80% of production roles by 2028. Around 15% of these roles are at “significant” risk of “algorithmic displacement,” according to the report.
The report was compiled with modelling from Ampere Analysis.