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📰 BARCLAYS NOW SEES 2 FED CUTS IN 2025 AFTER CUTTING U.S. GDP ESTIMATES Barclays analysts cut U.S. GDP growth for 2025 to 0.7% (down 0.8pp) and raised inflation to 3.2% (up 40bp), citing higher tariffs and trade uncertainty under Trump. They now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025 (25bp each in June and September) due to a weaker labor market, up from one, and three more in 2026 (March, June, September). Tariffs are now assumed at 15%, up from 10%, with unemployment rising to 4.2% (up 0.4pp).

March 13, 2025
Frank

BARCLAYS NOW SEES 2 FED CUTS IN 2025 AFTER CUTTING U.S. GDP ESTIMATES

Barclays analysts cut U.S. GDP growth for 2025 to 0.7% (down 0.8pp) and raised inflation to 3.2% (up 40bp), citing higher tariffs and trade uncertainty under Trump. They now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025 (25bp each in June and September) due to a weaker labor market, up from one, and three more in 2026 (March, June, September). Tariffs are now assumed at 15%, up from 10%, with unemployment rising to 4.2% (up 0.4pp).