Keeping score in streaming – never an easy prospect given the amount of data hidden away in corporate black boxes – is about to get even tougher in 2025.
Netflix will stop reporting subscriber numbers (for more than a decade the ultimate metric in streaming) as of the upcoming January-to-March quarter. The company says engagement time, operating profit and revenue offer better gauges of performance, calling the subscription tally “just one component of our growth.”
The move will open the door for rivals to follow suit (and Apple and Amazon already have ample experience with burying their streaming results under layers of semi-related tech operations). But before the fuzzier new era arrives, and along with it likely more bundling, M&A and large-scale live streams, it’s worth taking stock of the eventful year that’s now concluding.
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Streaming remains the dynamic center of the fast-shifting entertainment landscape, a siren still luring ships into the rocks. Given how bruising the business is compared with the heyday of pay-TV, 2024 in many ways has been a voluntary correction following the “great Netflix correction” of 2023. Initially considered to be ad-free by nature, streaming is now dominated by advertising. Pricing, set at teaser levels a few years ago, has jumped up dramatically. And content spending, while still considerable, has come down as companies reckon with Wall Street’s demand for profitability. And yet, through all of the upheaval, plenty of series, specials, movies and events arrived to stir the soul – even if we couldn’t quite make out who was punching who on that one Friday night in November.
Here, in alphabetical order, is how the seven leading services fared in 2024 and their outlook for 2025:
Apple TV+
2024 highlight: Presumed Innocent followed in the path established by Ted Lasso on the comedy side, becoming a bona fide drama franchise. Apple TV+ has had plenty of acclaimed and successful dramas, from Pachinko to Severance to Slow Horses (and limited series Disclosure this year caused a divisive stir), but Presumed Innocent took Apple into decidedly new territory.
2024 lowlight: The about-face on the George Clooney-Brad Pitt film Wolfs. Apple was initially planning an extensive theatrical run for the film after its Venice Film Festival premiere. Then, evidently influenced by poor box office for Channing Tatum-Scarlett Johansson teaming Fly Me to the Moon, the company opted to book just a week in theaters for Wolfs before it went to streaming. While the tech giant announced plans for a sequel to the well-received film even before its release, filmmaker Jon Watts told Deadline he bailed on Apple’s purported sequel because he “no longer trusted them as a creative partner.”
Challenge for 2025: Becoming more essential. Apple TV+ has come a long way since its bumpy launch a bit more than five years ago. Yet it remains fairly lean as an offering, despite now costing $10 a month on a stand-alone basis (up from $5 at launch). Without the serendipity of third-party titles luring viewers, as is the strategy for Netflix, Peacock, Max and others, can Apple deliver enough sticky new seasons of its popular originals, or add other titles on a monthly frequency in order to minimize churn?
Biggest question: Will advertising enter the picture? Apple TV+ remains a curious holdout among the major SVOD platforms by not having an ad tier. Long-rumored, and well-suited to the company’s live sports ambitions, advertising would provide additional revenue, which is never a bad thing. But it goes against the longtime strategy of bundling subscriptions to Apple TV+ with services like Apple Music and iCloud, and the company has far more experience creating ad campaigns than selling time.
Disney
2024 highlight: Disney’s streaming game undoubtedly got stronger with the integration of Hulu and ESPN+ content on Disney+ for bundle subscribers. The move solved one of the company’s biggest streaming problems: a content experience that felt disjointed and confusing to navigate. Now, Disney+ is a one-stop shop for nearly everything the Mouse House has to offer.
2024 lowlight: While Disney did turn a streaming profit for the first time this year, that is largely buoyed by sports via ESPN+. Disney+ and Hulu remain unprofitable on their own, and subscriber growth across both platforms has been a bit of a headache. Disney+ ended the fiscal year up just 2% in domestic subscribers. Despite the company crushing the box office this year, it appears to have had a difficult time translating that success to streaming.
Challenge for 2025: One of Disney’s repeated challenges, which continues to negatively impact streaming offerings, is that the company can’t seem to decide whether it is driven by public sentiment on sensitive topics. This year, Disney+ canceled The Acolyte for financial reasons, but only after the first season was the subject of racist cyberbullying online, prompting outcries from cast members who felt abandoned by the company, which stayed silent amid the vitriol. This month, Disney is under fire for removing a transgender storyline from its upcoming animated series Win or Lose (which it did speak out on). These flare-ups seem to happen often at Disney and the controversy rarely, if ever, works in the company’s favor. In fact, Disney would likely benefit from more conviction in its core values and less capitulation to loud, online conversation.
Biggest question: How will the continued rollout of the two-year-old ad tier help with two of the biggest issues – churn and subscriber growth – in 2025?
Max
2024 highlight: HBO has been and continues to be the shining star of Max (and scripted television in general), even if the service is working against that advantage at every turn. It was a lighter year for HBO fare, but the network still offered new seasons of House of the Dragon, True Detective, Industry and Hacks. It also found success with new shows like The Penguin and Dune: Prophecy. For the most part, these titles are buoying the service, and they really are the only ones the company ever touts from a performance perspective, probably for good reason.
2024 lowlight: Parting ways with the NBA. Warner Bros Discovery’s TNT has broadcast NBA games for nearly 40 years, but the company lost out as NBCUniversal and Amazon’s Prime Video joined incumbent Disney-ESPN in reaching 11-year rights deals. The loss of rights makes Max (and its long-planned sports add-on tier) much weaker in sports streaming, and it’s an open question whether fans without pay-TV will pony up an extra $10 a month for lesser attractions like NHL games, cycling, French Open tennis and March Madness men’s basketball.
Challenge for 2025: Live programming on streaming is clearly where the marketplace is headed. Warner Bros Discovery will need to contend with losing the NBA and find a way to course correct before it falls behind.
Biggest question: How, if at all, will David Zaslav’s corporate restructuring of Warner Bros Discovery, and the potential for a spinoff or merger involving its linear networks, affect its streaming service?
Netflix
2024 highlight: There were many positives this year including a roaring stock price, a three-year NFL deal and the resumption of big-ticket original programming after delays related to the 2023 strikes. But the biggest was the company landing rights to WWE Raw. The $5 billion, 10-year agreement will plug an ultra-stable draw for viewers into the weekly lineup and be a major engine for the company’s still-emerging advertising operation.
2024 lowlight: The audacious spin of the tech glitches that marred many viewers’ experience watching the live boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson would have made Don King blush. In a memo to employees, Netflix CTO Elizabeth Stone described complaints about buffering and sound problems as “chatter in the press and on social media.” Acknowledging the company has “room for improvement,” she said execs “still consider this event a huge success.” Co-CEO Ted Sarandos, speaking at a Wall Street conference, pointed to the unprecedented audience in the tens of millions and boasted of a “must-see-ness” that was “off the charts.” One wonders if a bigger dose of humility might follow any goofs in the company’s NFL Christmas Day doubleheader.
Challenge for 2025: Scaling the advertising effort. Execs have described a “crawl, walk, run” outlook for their nascent ad business, which launched in November 2022 after a shotgun announcement by former CEO Reed Hastings just six months earlier. Many Wall Street analysts see it as a multibillion-dollar revenue driver with potential to offset flattening growth in subscribers in established territories. Co-CEO Greg Peters on a recent earnings call said ad revenue will likely double in 2025, “albeit off a small base.” The company doesn’t break out how many subscribers opt for the $7-a-month ad tier but said in November that it now reaches 70 million monthly active users, up from 40 million in May.
Biggest question: How big is the company’s appetite for live sports? Although it pooh-poohs the idea of chasing rights – Sarandos said the service is more drawn to live events like comedy specials or programming with a “circus” component like the Tyson-Paul fight – Netflix is now an NFL partner. And it surely will take a look at UFC rights or other opportunities.
Paramount+
2024 highlight: Taylor Sheridan has been Paramount’s saving grace this year, especially when it comes to streaming. While new episodes of Yellowstone are still Peacock’s territory under a pre-existing licensing deal, Sheridan has brought six (that’s right, six) shows to Paramount+, from Tulsa King to Landman – and all have performed incredibly well. In fact, they’re some of the only shows on the streamer that have broken through this year.
2024 lowlight: Other than Sheridan’s gold mine, Paramount+ largely relies on theatrical releases and next-day linear shows to stay relevant. With Showtime still walled off to a premium tier, there just isn’t much on basic Paramount+ that stands out in the crowded streaming marketplace. The service continues to draw one of the smallest shares of streaming viewing each month, per Nielsen.
Challenge for 2025: Streaming consolidation is largely inevitable at this point, and Paramount+ will need to boost its profile if it is to stand on its own for much longer. More cross-pollination of Showtime and Paramount+ offerings might help, especially with a new season of Yellowjackets on the horizon.
Biggest question: How will the pending Skydance merger with Paramount Global, due to close in the first half of 2025, alter Paramount’s streaming operations? Skydance CEO David Ellison, who is backed by his billionaire tech father, has pledged to make significant investments in upgrading the Paramount+ tech stack and interface, but it will need more than a fresh look and feel to reach profitability.
Peacock
2024 highlight: The Olympics! NBCUniversal took the gold with its streaming hub for the Paris Games, which ran around the clock to give audiences access to every single medal event as well as opening and closing ceremonies. Viewership on the streamer increased 39% in July to its largest share of TV usage ever, nearly doubling its 35-49 audience. The win no doubt gave NBCU some ideas for perfecting its live event coverage, so it can charge full speed ahead in that arena, while also likely driving many who came for the Olympics to stay for the streamer’s other offerings.
2024 lowlight: Peacock often still struggles to gain traction with its original content. The Traitors and Love Island USA continue to provide much-needed buzz on the unscripted front, while Ted was a rare scripted breakout this year.
Challenge for 2025: Much like Paramount+, and maybe even more so, Peacock needs to step up its game on original content if it hopes to survive the streaming consolidation on the horizon. With the service considered a strong candidate to merge with a rival (and such talks occurring in recent months), Peacock’s financial results will soon be even more visible. It will stay with the Comcast mother ship after the planned spinoff next fall of NBCU’s linear cable networks into a new stand-alone entity.
Biggest question: With the Olympics and a few NFL streaming exclusives under its belt, how will Peacock continue to build on its sports and live-event strength, especially in a non-Olympics and non-election year?
Prime Video
2024 highlight: There were several including a splashy and successful debut upfront event last May, new NFL viewership highs and better-than-projected revenue from the initial months of advertising running on series and films. But the biggest feat of all was landing NBA and WNBA rights in an 11-year deal, joining Disney-ESPN and NBCUniversal as league partners as Warner Bros Discovery got kicked to the curb. While the price was hefty, approaching $20 billion, it gives Prime Video more ad-friendly Thursday night programming during non-NFL months.
Challenge for 2025: Following Fallout. The video game adaptation proved a remarkably potent lure for viewers, especially sought-after 18-to-34s as well as non-U.S. audiences.
Biggest question: Will this be the year when a weak streaming rival strikes a bargain with the devil and joins forces with Amazon given its massive reach? The tech giant has held talks with Warner Bros Discovery and other media majors about some form of collaboration and has also been a white knight for bankrupt regional sports network owner Diamond Sports Group. What could the next step in that evolution be as many traditional media players look to find ways to limit their spending?