$AMZN – Amazon continues to be JPMorgan’s top investment pick.
• Early Holiday 2024 Performance: Positive US e-commerce growth with Cyber Week sales matching projections.
• Black Friday & Cyber Week: Sales growth met or exceeded expectations, with Amazon reporting record sales.
• Holiday Season Dynamics: Shortest holiday shopping period since 2019, yet growth driven by early promotions and discounts.
• Economic Context: Stable macro conditions despite ongoing inflation and high interest rates.
• E-commerce Projections: Expect US e-commerce to reach 24.5% of adjusted retail sales, up from 23.3% last year.
• Long-term Outlook: Anticipates e-commerce could account for 40%+ of retail sales, driven by growth in underpenetrated sectors.
• Amazon’s Market Position: Retains a ~45% share of US e-commerce, bolstered by delivery speed, Prime benefits, and competitive pricing.
• 4Q Forecasts: Predicts Amazon’s retail revenue (excluding AWS) to grow by +8.9% year-over-year, with a slight increase in US e-commerce share.