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📰 TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXPECTED TO DECLINE The U.S. economy enters 2025 “with a strong head of steam,” but the outlook “is clouded by the potential for changes in U.S. trade policy,” Wells Fargo economists write. They forecast the Fed cutting twice this year, after a prolonged hold. It will then “keep its target range for the federal funds unchanged at 3.75%-4% throughout 2026,” they say. A lot will depend on upcoming Trump policies and forecasts will adjust as they surface. For now, Wells Fargo expects the 10-year Treasury yield to end this year at 4.25%, declining from 4.68% at the moment

January 16, 2025
Frank

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXPECTED TO DECLINE

The U.S. economy enters 2025 “with a strong head of steam,” but the outlook “is clouded by the potential for changes in U.S. trade policy,” Wells Fargo economists write. They forecast the Fed cutting twice this year, after a prolonged hold. It will then “keep its target range for the federal funds unchanged at 3.75%-4% throughout 2026,” they say. A lot will depend on upcoming Trump policies and forecasts will adjust as they surface. For now, Wells Fargo expects the 10-year Treasury yield to end this year at 4.25%, declining from 4.68% at the moment