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📰 DOES WEAK PPI MEAN WEAK CPI? Weak PPI means weak CPI, not always but often, writes Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets. Recently, it’s somewhat rare for the Labor Department to publish PPI data before CPI data in a given month, but before 2018, it was the norm. Looking back at 10 years of history: When headline and core PPI both fall short of expectations–as they did in this morning’s release of December data–CPI for the same month has come in hot only 21% of the time. In such cases, it meets expectations 39% of the time and it too is softer than expected 39% of the time, Donnelly finds. That suggests that Wednesday’s December CPI is now less likely to come it higher than Wall Street expects. Economists had been forecasting a 0.3% rise in consumer prices.

January 14, 2025
Frank

DOES WEAK PPI MEAN WEAK CPI?

Weak PPI means weak CPI, not always but often, writes Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets. Recently, it’s somewhat rare for the Labor Department to publish PPI data before CPI data in a given month, but before 2018, it was the norm. Looking back at 10 years of history: When headline and core PPI both fall short of expectations–as they did in this morning’s release of December data–CPI for the same month has come in hot only 21% of the time. In such cases, it meets expectations 39% of the time and it too is softer than expected 39% of the time, Donnelly finds. That suggests that Wednesday’s December CPI is now less likely to come it higher than Wall Street expects. Economists had been forecasting a 0.3% rise in consumer prices.