CPI PREVIEW
JPMorgan forecasts:
• Core CPI at 0.36%, headline at 0.32% for the month, with high shelter costs ongoing.
• Shelter costs like OER and rent will keep growing, though at a decelerating rate, above pre-COVID levels.
• Expect increases in lodging, airfares, and used vehicles, but a modest rise in apparel and a slight drop in communications.
Goldman Sachs forecasts:
• Core CPI up 0.31%, headline at 0.19% month-over-month.
• Core increase due to rising auction prices, airfare (+1.0%), and car insurance (+0.5%).
• Shelter costs stable (OER +0.33%, rent +0.28%), health insurance slightly down (-0.1%).
• Core PCE expected at 0.24%.
Citi forecasts:
• Core CPI at 0.26%, headline at 0.2% month-over-month.
• Shelter inflation decreasing, with primary rents at 0.25% and OER at 0.30%; recreation and services softening.
• Airfares to drop, health insurance to increase by 1.5% due to data update.
• Used cars up by 0.8%, apparel prices to ease to 0.3% possibly in November or December.
• Core PCE at 0.24%, anticipating strength in some PCE-relevant sectors.