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📰 THE MARKET TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT • Traders are particularly focused on the U.S. Treasury market as a way to gauge the impact of the upcoming presidential election. • The bond market, usually stable, is experiencing heightened attention due to election uncertainty. The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is near its yearly high, indicating traders expect significant fluctuations. • Treasury yields, specifically the 10-year yield, have been increasing, reflecting market bets on a Trump win, which is anticipated to lead to higher tariffs and fiscal spending. • Financial experts like Sonal Desai from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income and Arthur Bass from Wedbush Securities have noted that traders are betting on continued bond market sell-offs, expecting yields to rise further. • The sensitivity of Treasury yields to election outcomes was highlighted by a dip in yields following a poll showing Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, a state generally favorable to Republicans.

November 5, 2024
Frank

THE MARKET TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT

• Traders are particularly focused on the U.S. Treasury market as a way to gauge the impact of the upcoming presidential election.

• The bond market, usually stable, is experiencing heightened attention due to election uncertainty. The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is near its yearly high, indicating traders expect significant fluctuations.

• Treasury yields, specifically the 10-year yield, have been increasing, reflecting market bets on a Trump win, which is anticipated to lead to higher tariffs and fiscal spending.

• Financial experts like Sonal Desai from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income and Arthur Bass from Wedbush Securities have noted that traders are betting on continued bond market sell-offs, expecting yields to rise further.

• The sensitivity of Treasury yields to election outcomes was highlighted by a dip in yields following a poll showing Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, a state generally favorable to Republicans.