NEW YORK TIMES TECH WORKERS STRIKE AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY – WSJ
Day: November 4, 2024
📰 US-LISTED SHARES OF CHINA AUTO MAKERS UP PREMARKET AFTER BYD’S STONG OCT SALES XPENG UP 5.7% NIO UP 2% LI AUTO UP 1.8%
US-LISTED SHARES OF CHINA AUTO MAKERS UP PREMARKET AFTER BYD’S STONG OCT SALES XPENG UP 5.7%…
📰 J.P. MORGAN ON POTENTIAL USD REACTION TO US ELECTION OUTCOMES J.P. Morgan: “We estimate that FX prices in 60-70% chance of a Trump victory. G10 election vols have rebounded pre-election, hitting or nearing new cycle highs in many cases, while election vol is 10-30% higher than at this point in 2020 and 2016. USD +5% on a Red Sweep and +1.5-2% on a Trump victory with Split Congress, while a Harris victory with Split Congress sees USD weaker. Positioning not an impediment to USD upside, and is just a slight tailwind for USD shorts in a Harris victory. Macro Trade Recommendations: Portfolio unchanged into event risk heavy, uncertain week. Maintain barbell strategy of optionalised election hedges (long USD/SEK, short EUR/NOK), yield convergence trades (long JPY vs CAD, EUR), broad euro funding and USD longs (short EUR/USD). Emerging Markets FX: MW EM FX keeping positions light. Our favourite election hedges are short CNH, PLN and newly CZK in options. Stay long TRY and ILS, which we expect to be resilient. FX Derivatives: Election premium rebounded to a cycle high. Scandies and Antipodeans lag. Premium roll-off should see 1M vol down by about 1.5vol pts. Trump post-election win trade: topside USD and vol ownership. For Harris: USD skew harvesting in CNH, SEK or NOK, and high-beta G10 USD-puts vs low-beta USD-puts RV. Technicals: EUR/USD rebounds from 2023-2024 trend line support. EUR/GBP attempts to base above longer-term range support. USD/JPY rally stalls near the 153.505 Jul 61.8% retrace and Aug-Sep pattern objective. USD/CNH triggers a short-term sell signal at the 7.14-7.146 resistance zone.”
J.P. MORGAN ON POTENTIAL USD REACTION TO US ELECTION OUTCOMES J.P. Morgan: “We estimate that FX…
📰 TREASURIES EXTEND GAINS; 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS 10BPS TO 4.28%
TREASURIES EXTEND GAINS; 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS 10BPS TO 4.28%
📰 $META – META’S PLAN FOR NUCLEAR-POWERED AI DATA CENTRE THWARTED BY RARE BEES- FT
$META – META’S PLAN FOR NUCLEAR-POWERED AI DATA CENTRE THWARTED BY RARE BEES- FT
📰 TRUMP WIN COULD REDUCE FED’S RATE-CUT POTENTIAL, SUPPORT DOLLAR The U.S. dollar could gain from a win by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s win via a likely reduced potential for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, DZ Bank’s Sonja Marten says in a note. Trump’s tariff and migration plans are expected to be inflationary, while tax cuts would lead to a short-term economic boom, the analyst says. “All that will significantly reduce the Fed’s interest-rate cut potential,” she says. “In this scenario, a clear and dynamic positive reaction would be expected on the dollar’s side,” the analyst says.
TRUMP WIN COULD REDUCE FED’S RATE-CUT POTENTIAL, SUPPORT DOLLAR The U.S. dollar could gain from a…