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📰 SEPTEMBER PAYROLLS COULD BE REVISED LOWER The surprising increase in payrolls is likely to be revised lower, Pantheon’s Samuel Tombs says in a note about today’s 254,000 print, an increase from August’s 159,000 that beat estimates of 150,000. The spike “goes against the grain of a wide range of indicators pointing to a continued pullback in hiring,” Tombs says, adding that only 62% of the businesses in the sample filed responses on time for the estimate, down from 68% a year ago. “We think that small businesses are disproportionately late responders and are cutting back on hiring more than large businesses.”

October 4, 2024
Frank

SEPTEMBER PAYROLLS COULD BE REVISED LOWER

The surprising increase in payrolls is likely to be revised lower, Pantheon’s Samuel Tombs says in a note about today’s 254,000 print, an increase from August’s 159,000 that beat estimates of 150,000. The spike “goes against the grain of a wide range of indicators pointing to a continued pullback in hiring,” Tombs says, adding that only 62% of the businesses in the sample filed responses on time for the estimate, down from 68% a year ago. “We think that small businesses are disproportionately late responders and are cutting back on hiring more than large businesses.”