SEPTEMBER PAYROLLS COULD BE REVISED LOWER
The surprising increase in payrolls is likely to be revised lower, Pantheon’s Samuel Tombs says in a note about today’s 254,000 print, an increase from August’s 159,000 that beat estimates of 150,000. The spike “goes against the grain of a wide range of indicators pointing to a continued pullback in hiring,” Tombs says, adding that only 62% of the businesses in the sample filed responses on time for the estimate, down from 68% a year ago. “We think that small businesses are disproportionately late responders and are cutting back on hiring more than large businesses.”