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📰 🔸PCE DATA LIKELY TO LEAVE OPEN FOR HALF-POINT CUT IN NOVEMBER Many forecasters are confident that core PCE inflation will come in below 0.2% month over month when the data are released at 8:30am ET. A modest reading in the 0.1% range would likely keep the 12-month core PCE inflation rate above the Fed’s 2% target–somewhere around 2.3%. But annualized inflation over the last three months would land somewhere around 1.8% to 1.9%, according to JPMorgan economists, which could keep another 50-basis-point rate cut open for the Fed in November. If no surprise comes today, the September jobs report in one week will provide a clearer signal, JPMorgan writes

September 27, 2024
Frank

🔸PCE DATA LIKELY TO LEAVE OPEN FOR HALF-POINT CUT IN NOVEMBER

Many forecasters are confident that core PCE inflation will come in below 0.2% month over month when the data are released at 8:30am ET. A modest reading in the 0.1% range would likely keep the 12-month core PCE inflation rate above the Fed’s 2% target–somewhere around 2.3%. But annualized inflation over the last three months would land somewhere around 1.8% to 1.9%, according to JPMorgan economists, which could keep another 50-basis-point rate cut open for the Fed in November. If no surprise comes today, the September jobs report in one week will provide a clearer signal, JPMorgan writes