News

📰 The Week Ahead 🔸Monday 9/16 • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. Economists forecast a negative five reading, about even with the August figure. The survey tracks the health of the manufacturing sector in New York state, with positive readings indicating improving conditions and negative readings indicating worsening conditions. 🔸Tuesday 9/17 • Ferguson Enterprises releases fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results. • The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Expectations are for a 41 reading, two points more than in August. Readings below 50 indicate that home builders have a dour outlook for the housing market in the near future. • The Census Bureau reports retail and food-services sales for August. The consensus estimate is for retail sales to be flat month over month after a healthy 1% gain in July. Excluding autos, sales are expected to increase 0.4%, matching the July rise. 🔸Wednesday 9/18 • General Mills announces first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings. • The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary policy decision. The FOMC is all but certain to cut the federal-funds rate, currently at a multidecade high of 5.25% to 5.50%, for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. The futures market is pricing in a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut and a 50% chance of a half-point cut. Traders are expecting more than a full percentage point worth of rate cuts by the end of the year, implying at least one half-point cut at one of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year. • The Census Bureau reports residential construction statistics for August. The consensus call is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million privately-owned housing starts, nearly 100,000 more than in July. 🔸Thursday 9/19 • Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, FedEx, and Lennar report quarterly results. • The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.9 million homes sold, roughly even with the July data. Existing-home sales are hovering near their lowest levels since the 2008-09 financial crisis as high mortgage rates price some buyers out of the market and lock in would-be sellers who purchased at much lower rates. 🔸Friday 9/20 • The Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. The BOJ has hiked rates twice this year, ending its negative interest rate policy that had been in effect since early 2016. Since early July, the Japanese yen has rallied more than 12% against the U.S. dollar in response to a more hawkish BOJ and in anticipation of the FOMC cutting the federal-funds rate.

September 15, 2024
Frank

The Week Ahead

🔸Monday 9/16

• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. Economists forecast a negative five reading, about even with the August figure. The survey tracks the health of the manufacturing sector in New York state, with positive readings indicating improving conditions and negative readings indicating worsening conditions.

🔸Tuesday 9/17

• Ferguson Enterprises releases fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results.

• The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Expectations are for a 41 reading, two points more than in August. Readings below 50 indicate that home builders have a dour outlook for the housing market in the near future.

• The Census Bureau reports retail and food-services sales for August. The consensus estimate is for retail sales to be flat month over month after a healthy 1% gain in July. Excluding autos, sales are expected to increase 0.4%, matching the July rise.

🔸Wednesday 9/18

• General Mills announces first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings.

• The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary policy decision. The FOMC is all but certain to cut the federal-funds rate, currently at a multidecade high of 5.25% to 5.50%, for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. The futures market is pricing in a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut and a 50% chance of a half-point cut. Traders are expecting more than a full percentage point worth of rate cuts by the end of the year, implying at least one half-point cut at one of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year.

• The Census Bureau reports residential construction statistics for August. The consensus call is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million privately-owned housing starts, nearly 100,000 more than in July.

🔸Thursday 9/19

• Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, FedEx, and Lennar report quarterly results.

• The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.9 million homes sold, roughly even with the July data. Existing-home sales are hovering near their lowest levels since the 2008-09 financial crisis as high mortgage rates price some buyers out of the market and lock in would-be sellers who purchased at much lower rates.

🔸Friday 9/20

• The Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. The BOJ has hiked rates twice this year, ending its negative interest rate policy that had been in effect since early 2016. Since early July, the Japanese yen has rallied more than 12% against the U.S. dollar in response to a more hawkish BOJ and in anticipation of the FOMC cutting the federal-funds rate.