📰 OIL PRICES WOULD NEED TO FALL TO $53/BARREL FOR US CPI TO HIT FED’S 2% TARGET:CITI 🔸 Citi: Brent crude could drop to $60 by 2H25 (-20% from $75), potentially lowering U.S. CPI by 0.3pp short-term. 🔸 Impact: A 33% oil price drop could cut CPI by 0.5pp; a 50% drop ($35/bbl) could reduce CPI by 0.8%. 🔸 Fed Target: Oil at $53/bbl (~$2.60/gal gas) needed for 2% inflation. 🔸 Risks: Tariffs on China (+0.2pp CPI), reciprocal tariffs (+0.3pp), and U.S. trade policies could offset deflationary effects.

OIL PRICES WOULD NEED TO FALL TO $53/BARREL FOR US CPI TO HIT FED’S 2% TARGET:CITI

🔸 Citi: Brent crude could drop to $60 by 2H25 (-20% from $75), potentially lowering U.S. CPI by 0.3pp short-term.

🔸 Impact: A 33% oil price drop could cut CPI by 0.5pp; a 50% drop ($35/bbl) could reduce CPI by 0.8%.

🔸 Fed Target: Oil at $53/bbl (~$2.60/gal gas) needed for 2% inflation.

🔸 Risks: Tariffs on China (+0.2pp CPI), reciprocal tariffs (+0.3pp), and U.S. trade policies could offset deflationary effects.